Lisa Vorderbrueggen of the Contra Costa Times put out a couple of interesting pieces today which one offered some insight into the AD-11 race as she predicts Oakley Councilman Jim Frazier probably will finish within the top 2.
While I also believe he will finish in the top two, it’s no lock as he may get burned by not enough voters going the poll while the Democrats have a diluted vote.
Here are Vorderbrueggens thoughts:
Will Democratic Oakley Councilman Jim Frazier make the top two finishers in the new Assembly District 11?
Probably. He has the most money and the major endorsements.
But his supporters are taking nothing for granted, if the extraordinary volume of campaign mail is any indication.
It’s all about the math.
Five of the six primary candidates are from Solano County, where 57 percent of the district’s voters reside. And based on party registration, the sole Republican on the ticket, Mike Hudson, will likely receive up to a third of the vote.
Frazier needs a strong Contra Costa turnout plus a decent showing in Solano if he hopes to emerge at the top of the Democratic pile.
Her other article states that states voter turnout is set to be very low. Contra Costa Registrar of Voters Steve Weir predicts an “anemic” turnout that could dip below 40 percent.
He points to the lack of a presidential primary contest in California in either major party or a hot-button statewide ballot measure, which would have driven up voter interest.